Statements (78)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| gptkbp:instance_of |
gptkb:Person
|
| gptkbp:bfsLayer |
4
|
| gptkbp:bfsParent |
gptkb:Daniel_Kahneman
|
| gptkbp:affiliation |
gptkb:University
gptkb:University_of_Pennsylvania |
| gptkbp:author |
gptkb:Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction
|
| gptkbp:awards |
gptkb:William_James_Fellow_Award
Lifetime Achievement Award from the International Society of Political Psychology |
| gptkbp:birth_date |
1943-07-17
|
| gptkbp:children |
2
|
| gptkbp:collaborations |
gptkb:Barbara_Mellers
gptkb:Don_Moore gptkb:Derek_J._Koehler |
| gptkbp:contribution |
Developing the concept of superforecasting
Founding the Good Judgment Project Analyzed political forecasting Developed the concept of 'superforecasters' Studied the psychology of expert judgment |
| gptkbp:education |
gptkb:University
gptkb:Stanford_University BA from the University of Toronto Ph D from Stanford University |
| gptkbp:famous_quote |
" The best forecasters are those who are willing to change their minds."
" We need to be more humble about our ability to predict the future." |
| gptkbp:field |
gptkb:Political_Science
gptkb:psychologist |
| https://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label |
Philip E. Tetlock
|
| gptkbp:influenced |
Policy analysis
Forecasting community Political psychology field |
| gptkbp:influenced_by |
gptkb:Amos_Tversky
gptkb:Daniel_Kahneman |
| gptkbp:is_involved_in |
Consulting for government agencies
Teaching at universities Writing articles for academic journals Advocating for interdisciplinary approaches in research Analyzing historical predictions for accuracy Conducting workshops on decision making Engaging with the media on prediction topics Exploring the limits of expert judgment Mentoring students in political psychology Participating in forecasting tournaments Promoting evidence-based forecasting practices Public speaking on forecasting Researching the psychology of intelligence analysis |
| gptkbp:known_for |
gptkb:Superforecasting
Expertise in political forecasting Research on judgment and decision making Expert political judgment |
| gptkbp:nationality |
gptkb:Native_American_tribe
|
| gptkbp:notable_feature |
The impact of overconfidence on predictions
The importance of probabilistic thinking The role of feedback in improving forecasts The value of tracking prediction accuracy The concept of 'hedgehogs' vs 'foxes' in forecasting The significance of diverse viewpoints in forecasting |
| gptkbp:notable_work |
gptkb:Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction
Expert Political Judgment Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? |
| gptkbp:occupation |
gptkb:University
gptkb:psychologist |
| gptkbp:published_by |
gptkb:physicist
gptkb:Nature gptkb:Journal_of_Personality_and_Social_Psychology gptkb:American_Political_Science_Review gptkb:Psychological_Science |
| gptkbp:research |
gptkb:Research_Institute
Surveys Experiments Meta-analysis |
| gptkbp:research_focus |
Decision-making processes
Cognitive biases Forecasting accuracy Judgment and decision making Accuracy of predictions Cognitive biases in forecasting |
| gptkbp:spouse |
gptkb:Barbara_Mellers
gptkb:Barbara_Tetlock |