An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
E835243
"An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" is the posthumously published paper by Thomas Bayes that introduced the foundational ideas of Bayesian probability theory.
All labels observed (2)
| Label | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances canonical | 3 |
| Bayes 1763 paper | 1 |
How this entity was disambiguated
This entity first appeared as the object of triple T10023571 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.
NED1
Entity disambiguation (via context triple)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances Context triple: [Thomas Bayes, notableWork, An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances]
-
A.
The Doctrine of Chances
The Doctrine of Chances is an influential 18th-century treatise by Abraham de Moivre that systematically developed the mathematical theory of probability, especially as applied to games of chance.
-
B.
Ars Conjectandi
Ars Conjectandi is a foundational 1713 treatise on probability theory by Jakob Bernoulli that systematically developed the mathematical study of chance and introduced key concepts such as the law of large numbers.
-
C.
A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability is John Maynard Keynes’s influential 1921 work that develops a logical and philosophical theory of probability, challenging classical and frequency-based interpretations.
-
D.
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae is a pioneering 17th-century treatise on probability theory, particularly as applied to games of chance.
-
E.
The Theory of Probability
The Theory of Probability is Hans Reichenbach’s influential philosophical and mathematical treatise that helped establish a rigorous, frequency-based interpretation of probability within the logical empiricist tradition.
- F. None of above. chosen
- G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.
NED2
Entity disambiguation (via description)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances Target entity description: "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" is the posthumously published paper by Thomas Bayes that introduced the foundational ideas of Bayesian probability theory.
-
A.
The Doctrine of Chances
The Doctrine of Chances is an influential 18th-century treatise by Abraham de Moivre that systematically developed the mathematical theory of probability, especially as applied to games of chance.
-
B.
Ars Conjectandi
Ars Conjectandi is a foundational 1713 treatise on probability theory by Jakob Bernoulli that systematically developed the mathematical study of chance and introduced key concepts such as the law of large numbers.
-
C.
A Treatise on Probability
A Treatise on Probability is John Maynard Keynes’s influential 1921 work that develops a logical and philosophical theory of probability, challenging classical and frequency-based interpretations.
-
D.
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae
De ratiociniis in ludo aleae is a pioneering 17th-century treatise on probability theory, particularly as applied to games of chance.
-
E.
The Theory of Probability
The Theory of Probability is Hans Reichenbach’s influential philosophical and mathematical treatise that helped establish a rigorous, frequency-based interpretation of probability within the logical empiricist tradition.
- F. None of above. chosen
Statements (44)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| instanceOf |
mathematical paper
ⓘ
probability theory paper ⓘ scientific paper ⓘ |
| author | Thomas Bayes ⓘ |
| authorDeathBeforePublication | Thomas Bayes ⓘ |
| citedAs |
Bayes 1763 paper
ⓘ
Bayes essay ⓘ
linked to:
Bayes
|
| countryOfPublication | Great Britain ⓘ |
| describedAs | posthumously published paper by Thomas Bayes ⓘ |
| editor | Richard Price ⓘ |
| field |
mathematics
ⓘ
probability theory ⓘ statistics ⓘ |
| hasPart |
discussion of updating probabilities with new evidence
ⓘ
geometric argument involving a billiard table ⓘ mathematical derivation of Bayes theorem ⓘ |
| historicalSignificance |
foundational work in Bayesian probability theory
ⓘ
one of the earliest formal treatments of inverse probability ⓘ |
| includedIn | early works on the doctrine of chances ⓘ |
| influenced |
development of Bayesian statistics
ⓘ
modern statistical inference ⓘ philosophy of probability ⓘ |
| introducedConcept |
Bayes theorem
ⓘ
linked to:
Bayes’ theorem
Bayesian inference ⓘ |
| language | English ⓘ |
| mainSubject |
Bayes theorem
ⓘ
linked to:
Bayes’ theorem
Bayesian probability ⓘ conditional probability ⓘ inverse probability ⓘ |
| notableFor |
laying groundwork for Bayesian interpretation of probability
ⓘ
providing a rule for revising beliefs in light of new evidence ⓘ |
| originalTitleLanguage | English ⓘ |
| posthumousAuthorAttribution | Thomas Bayes ⓘ |
| publicationYear | 1763 ⓘ |
| publishedIn | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London ⓘ |
| publishedPosthumously | true ⓘ |
| publisher |
Royal Society of London
ⓘ
linked to:
Royal Society
|
| relatedConcept |
Bayesian updating
ⓘ
linked to:
Bayesian inference
posterior probability ⓘ prior probability ⓘ |
| relatedWork |
Bayes theorem
ⓘ
linked to:
Bayes’ theorem
|
| timeOfWriting | 18th century ⓘ |
| topic |
inductive reasoning
ⓘ
probability of causes given events ⓘ |
How these facts were elicited
The pipeline generated the facts above by prompting gpt-5.1 with this entity's name + description and the instruction below.
Instruction
You are a knowledge base construction expert. Given a subject entity and a description of it, return factual statements that you know for the subject as a JSON list of dictionaries(triples), where keys must be "subject", "predicate" and "object". The number of facts may be very high, between 25 to 50 or more, for very popular subjects. For less popular subjects, the number of facts can be very low, like 5 or 10. # Requirements - If you don't know the subject at all, return an empty list. - If the subject is not a named entity, return an empty list. - Include at least one triple where predicate is "instanceOf". - Do not get too wordy. - Separate several objects into multiple triples with one object.
Input
Subject: An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances Description of subject: "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" is the posthumously published paper by Thomas Bayes that introduced the foundational ideas of Bayesian probability theory.
Referenced by (4)
Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.
Thomas Bayes
→
posthumousPublication
→
An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
ⓘ
linked to: An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances