Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations
E140442
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" is a seminal macroeconomics paper that introduced time-to-build investment and technology shocks as key drivers of business cycles, laying foundational ideas for real business cycle theory.
All labels observed (1)
| Label | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations canonical | 1 |
How this entity was disambiguated
This entity first appeared as the object of triple T1229785 — resolving that mention is where its identity was fixed. The disambiguator weighed these candidate entities and picked the highlighted one (or “None”, minting a new entity). This is how homonymy is resolved: the same surface form can point to different entities.
NED1
Entity disambiguation (via context triple)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations Context triple: [Finn E. Kydland, notableWork, Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations]
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A.
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices is the Bank of Japan’s flagship semiannual report that presents its forecasts and assessments of Japan’s economic growth and inflation.
-
B.
Phillips curve framework
The Phillips curve framework is a macroeconomic concept that posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, shaping policymakers’ understanding of inflation dynamics and trade-offs in the postwar era.
-
C.
the "Volcker shock" in U.S. monetary policy
The "Volcker shock" in U.S. monetary policy refers to the dramatic interest rate hikes and tight monetary stance of the early 1980s aimed at breaking entrenched inflation, which triggered a deep recession but ultimately restored price stability and reshaped central banking practice.
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D.
Industrial Fluctuations
Industrial Fluctuations is an influential economic study by Arthur Cecil Pigou that analyzes the causes and patterns of business cycles and variations in industrial activity.
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E.
Economic Confidence Model
The Economic Confidence Model is Martin Armstrong’s proprietary cyclical forecasting system that predicts economic and financial market turning points based on a recurring 8.6-year cycle.
- F. None of above. chosen
- G. Unsure - the case is ambiguous/there is not enough information to decide.
NED2
Entity disambiguation (via description)
gpt-5-mini-2025-08-07
Target entity: Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations Target entity description: "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" is a seminal macroeconomics paper that introduced time-to-build investment and technology shocks as key drivers of business cycles, laying foundational ideas for real business cycle theory.
-
A.
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices is the Bank of Japan’s flagship semiannual report that presents its forecasts and assessments of Japan’s economic growth and inflation.
-
B.
Phillips curve framework
The Phillips curve framework is a macroeconomic concept that posits an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, shaping policymakers’ understanding of inflation dynamics and trade-offs in the postwar era.
-
C.
the "Volcker shock" in U.S. monetary policy
The "Volcker shock" in U.S. monetary policy refers to the dramatic interest rate hikes and tight monetary stance of the early 1980s aimed at breaking entrenched inflation, which triggered a deep recession but ultimately restored price stability and reshaped central banking practice.
-
D.
Industrial Fluctuations
Industrial Fluctuations is an influential economic study by Arthur Cecil Pigou that analyzes the causes and patterns of business cycles and variations in industrial activity.
-
E.
Economic Confidence Model
The Economic Confidence Model is Martin Armstrong’s proprietary cyclical forecasting system that predicts economic and financial market turning points based on a recurring 8.6-year cycle.
- F. None of above. chosen
Statements (45)
| Predicate | Object |
|---|---|
| instanceOf |
academic paper
ⓘ
macroeconomics paper ⓘ seminal paper in real business cycle theory ⓘ |
| arguesThat | technology shocks are primary drivers of business cycles ⓘ |
| assumes |
exogenous technology process
ⓘ
perfectly competitive markets ⓘ rational expectations ⓘ representative agent ⓘ |
| author |
Edward C. Prescott
ⓘ
Finn E. Kydland ⓘ |
| citedFor |
early use of calibration in macroeconomics
ⓘ
introduction of time-to-build in macro models ⓘ |
| contribution |
formalizes real business cycle mechanisms
ⓘ
quantitative calibration of a real business cycle model ⓘ shows model can replicate key features of U.S. business cycles ⓘ |
| countryOfContext | United States economy ⓘ |
| field |
business cycle theory
ⓘ
macroeconomics ⓘ real business cycle theory ⓘ |
| focusesOn |
capital accumulation
ⓘ
investment dynamics ⓘ output fluctuations ⓘ |
| hasTopic |
aggregate output volatility
ⓘ
business cycle stylized facts ⓘ capital formation ⓘ labor supply fluctuations ⓘ productivity shocks ⓘ |
| impact |
popularized technology shocks as central macroeconomic disturbances
ⓘ
shifted macroeconomics toward micro-founded models ⓘ |
| influenced |
development of real business cycle literature
ⓘ
modern DSGE modeling ⓘ |
| introduces | time-to-build structure in capital accumulation ⓘ |
| language | English ⓘ |
| mainConcept |
aggregate fluctuations
ⓘ
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model ⓘ technology shocks ⓘ time-to-build investment ⓘ |
| publicationYear | 1982 ⓘ |
| publishedIn | Econometrica ⓘ |
| relatedTo |
Kydland and Prescott Nobel Prize citation
ⓘ
real business cycle theory ⓘ
surface form:
Real Business Cycles
|
| shows |
technology shocks can account for a large fraction of output variance
ⓘ
time-to-build lags can amplify and propagate shocks ⓘ |
| usesMethod |
calibration
ⓘ
dynamic general equilibrium modeling ⓘ |
How these facts were elicited
The pipeline generated the facts above by prompting gpt-5.1 with this entity's name + description and the instruction below.
Instruction
You are a knowledge base construction expert. Given a subject entity and a description of it, return factual statements that you know for the subject as a JSON list of dictionaries(triples), where keys must be "subject", "predicate" and "object". The number of facts may be very high, between 25 to 50 or more, for very popular subjects. For less popular subjects, the number of facts can be very low, like 5 or 10. # Requirements - If you don't know the subject at all, return an empty list. - If the subject is not a named entity, return an empty list. - Include at least one triple where predicate is "instanceOf". - Do not get too wordy. - Separate several objects into multiple triples with one object.
Input
Subject: Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations Description of subject: "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" is a seminal macroeconomics paper that introduced time-to-build investment and technology shocks as key drivers of business cycles, laying foundational ideas for real business cycle theory.
Referenced by (1)
Full triples — surface form annotated when it differs from this entity's canonical label.